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In times of great economic uncertainty, even institutional traders can be at a loss for how to manage a portfolio. At large pension funds, portfolio managers use data-driven models to assess risk and allocate assets. But even the most advanced economic models struggle to make sense of economic scenarios that change rapidly and in unpredictable ways.

鈥淭hese scenarios capture regime shifts that are complex and hard to model quantitatively,鈥� Prof. Sebastien Betermier told the Financial Post. 鈥淧ension managers must rely on a certain amount of 鈥榥arrative building鈥� in the absence of hard facts and figures about how things will play out economically and geopolitically.鈥�